I would like to dedicate this update and perhaps the one to come later this afternoon (July 18- 2008) to recent developments in Peru, one of Latin America's best preforming economies in recent years and quickly gaining international recognition for both its economy and equally important-- Peru's unique culture.
I begin today's focus on Peru, with a chart I assembled for my dissertation on Sino-South American relations and economic cooperation, providing a general picture of how Peru's economic growth compares with its neighbors. My dissertation focused on the below countries and their growing relations and trade with China.
I must mention Ecuador and Uruguay each experienced their own respective healthy growth rates in 2006 and 2007. Information has been assembled from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and account for inflation which is on the rise throughout the continent, but is particularly high in Venezuela and Argentina.
As you can observe above, comparing Peru with other countries in the region, it is preforming quite well and the IMF forecasts healthy growth for the country foward to 2009, at which point it has also been estimated Peru's economy will achieve fast. At the time of writing of my dissertation (Jan-April, 2008), estimates and future forecasts by the IMF were as follows. Please, by all means, let me know if the figures have been significantly altered since earlier this year.
Latin America - Country Growth Rates 2006-2009 (r = Real GDP percent change, e = expected and f = forecast)
Source: IMF GDP calculations adjusted for inflation -------------------------------------------------------------
Peru has many good things going for it right now. First, copper unarguably one of Peru's most important natural resources has risen sharply in value over the past few years, in addition to other raw material exports Peru has in abundance-- fishmeal, gold, silver and zinc. Copper is a key input in economic development-- and even if as of recent days the price has dropped, it will remain a commodity in strong demand for quite some time-- thanks in large to China which now relies on Chile and Peru for 50% of its total imports of copper from abroad.
Below is a graph which predicts copper demand and China's economic growth based off the proportional level of copper demanded from other countries at similar levels of development, using South Korea as the primary benchmark due to many similarities its own plan for initiating their economic development and similar needs of having to import many of the inputs necessary to industrialize.
Below is a graph generated from the London Metals Exchange home page, using their price graph generator.
Thankfully, as Mr. Michael Reid states in his new book, the Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul it seems Latin American countries are in a different position than they where during past commodity booms. Today, thanks in large to the BRIC countries and to emerging market demand, the current commodity boom will remain in swing for longer than ones of the past. Second, from historically failing to re-distribute profits from commodity booms to constructive areas of the economy to ensure sustainable growth after commodity prices fall many leaders now know better.
Peruvian present Alan Garcia, who had previously been considered a charismatic, populist, has shown he's learned from many of his past mistakes and currently retains pretty decent support and popularity rating in Peru.
In his first term as president in the late 1980's, his economic and internal policies lead to escalating violence from the war then in full swing, with the Peruvian state on one side, fighting the Maoist Shining Path Guerrillas on the other. Escalating violence and failed economic plans also lead the nation to experience the worst hyper-inflation of Peru's history.
Today he is viewed as a healthy moderate, leading the way with other popular Peruvian politicians such as Lima's mayor who also enjoys high popularity ratings as of recent polls, in investing profits from commodities in constructive projects. New water facilities are being built for Lima, which sits in the driest desert on the planet, highways are being built / repaired, ports are being upgraded and new airports are being built in Northern Peru (a region historically ignored in large by the central government).
I end this post (with more to come later), with a article I saved from March's APEC summit which took place in Lima.
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China sees Peru as the gate to South America - Andina News
Lima, Mar. 10 (ANDINA).- Macroeconomic and political stability and impressive growth makes Peru the ideal entrance gate for Chinese investments and trade to Latin America, said Chinese ambassador to Lima Gao Zhengyue. One of the advantages that Peru offers to China as economic partners is its strategic economic convergence, derived from its geographical position in the continent, as a bridge between Asia and South America and the Atlantic Ocean through the bioceanic corridor.
Peru is also important due to its projection towards a sub regional extended market through the Andean Community (CAN) and Mercosur.
Chinese Ambassador to Peru
Gao Zhengyue
So far this year, around 30 delegations have visited Peru, and probably this number would increase when the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and China is signed, he told Andina news agency.
Chinese business leaders are very interested in diversifying investments to Peru, currently concentrated in mining, in sectors such as ports, airports and road construction.
The Chinese government is interested in taking part in the social programs promoted by Peruvian government, as "Agua para Todos" (Water for Everybody) and "Techo Propio" (My Own Roof), he said.
"Whenever the Peruvian government can show projects to the Chinese business leaders, they will start to study them and decide to make investments", he said.
Gao Zhengyue told Andina that he is very satisfied with the firts two Rounds of Negotiations to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and China and hopes the FTA could be signed at the end of this year, so it would come into effect immediately.
The Chinese diplomat said his country is ready to welcome Peru's President Alan Garcia when he visits China next week.
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