Sunday, November 30, 2008

Financial crisis... how some South American countries may do better than expected

Six months ago when commodity prices where at record high's it seemed as if South America was entering a golden age of prosperity. Or at least that they where on track. Of course many analysts and “experts” predicted there would be trouble if prices fell back down to reality. None the less, it seemed that surging demand from Asia and the lack of investment in supply capacity throughout the 80's and 90's would be sufficient to keep the prices of various commodities up.

I was personally of the camp which believed prices had come up a bit too fast, but where no less going to stay well above what they where in the late 90's and early 2000's. In the long-run I still believe this will be the case, however the recent global financial has proved me horribly wrong in the short-term.

It does however seem that one thing has been made clear from the recent crisis. At least some of the countries in South America have become better at managing their financial systems and internal economies. Many nations saved, paid off their international debt and invested wisely. Other's didn't and will pay the price (Argentina I mean you).

Here's some recent news worth taking a look at from the past week.

Peru – MTC 2009 budget proposal exceeds $1 billion

Last week Peru's transport and communication minister Veronica Zavala presented congress with a 3.3 billion sol ($1.07) budget proposal. The money according to BNAmerica's will be allocated to various segments of the transport sector. This includes highways, roads, airports, trains and the communication sector.


Peru – Luis Valdivieso, Peru's Minister of Economy and Finances has prepared 49 investment projects aimed to cushion Peru during the financial crisis

Andina.com reports that the Minister of the Economy and finances believes these 49 projects are aimed to keep Peru growing between six and seven percent for the next year.

“We won't allow any reduction in the public spending, consistent with a growth between six and seven percent. To face a possible reduction of fiscal income due to a loss of international markets, if necessary, there is a number of projects ready to fulfill this goal,” stated Luis Valdivieso.


Uruguay confident of weathering financial crisis reports the Financial Times

Interestingly enough, little old Uruguay seems in good position to weather the financial crisis, while it's bigger neighbor, Argentina, does not. The government seems confident that Uruguay can get through this crisis, even if Argentina continues to edge towards economic upheaval, as evident by the countries recent seizure of private pension funds, the governments horrible handling of recent protests and generally scaring away international investors...

Friday, November 28, 2008

China: What's going down “east-side?”


With the world economy faltering, recovering, crashing, entering crisis, deflating, **input whatever other term you've been reading** many are hoping China will some how cushion the global down turn. Lets consider this from both ends of the spectrum.

There's one side of analysts, experts, observers, etc who believe the Chinese economy as the largest contributor to global GDP growth the past few years is in a position in which it can help the global economy move through this economic depression. Then there's the other side that inexorably links the Chinese economy to rich country demand for their cheap exports... which is decreasing at an alarming rate according to the figures.

From the perspective of a young economist who is currently living in Suzhou, China the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Before you (the readers) close this page and assume that's the obvious answer hear me out. It's not that simple...

From the window of the pizza place, which offers me high speed internet where I am currently writing this post from I see the following.

Fireworks exploding in the distance to celebrate the grand opening of something big. I don't know for what, but if i've learned anything from the past few months of living in Suzhou, a show of this caliber means the following: the government is celebrating some major achievement, a big night club has something to brag about, or perhaps a shopping center or a residential complex is opening its doors. Fireworks are a usual tactic employed as way to dazzle the populous, attract business and of course... to ward of bad spirits (which is what the tradition of exploding fireworks in China is traditionally for).

I can also see various cranes in the distance, where workers are building various new structures six days a week. These include 15-20 floor apartment complexes, 20-45 floor office buildings and other structures which I would guess will have something to do with the government.

The third thing I can see, which is worthy of mention is a giant fenced off whole in the ground which blocks the pedestrians view of the construction work underway for a new subway system set to open in 2010.

These points support the first side of the story. The Chinese economy, on the domestic front is going to keep growing even if the rich countries of the world slide even further into recession. A “Pandora's Box” of sorts has been opened here in China. The opening of the Chinese economy, the robust growth of the past two decades, the massive migration of hundreds of million of rural residents to urban centers, massive inflows of FDI and a variety of other factors have created a situation where the central government must needs to either facilitate to the best of its ability or risk imploding from within.

The recent decrease in commodity prices will only help China keep its modernization / urbanization/ domestic growth (whatever you want to call it) going. Six months ago, I was analyzing how demand was so strong in China that it mattered little in the long run how high the prices of commodities went, because in the end the Chinese would not abandon their aspirations to well... keep growing. From this perspective, plummeting commodity prices (much to the detriment of my senior thesis in which I predicted they would keep rising) is a blessing in disguise.

China's recent $586 billion stimulus package and the record slashing of Chinese interest rates is an effort by the government to keep this going. Infrastructure, housing and all that jazz will continue. This means jobs and therefore continued consumption by consumers. This also means China will keep buying the commodity inputs they need to build. So, to conclude this side of the story, this means China will continue to grow.

However, and now here comes the “dark side.” Even the two trillion plus dollars in foreign reservers Beijing claims will finance all of this, can not and will keep this going indefinitely. The money will run out, or more likely simply start to no longer be worth spending if the rest of the world, particularly the rich world doesn't get out of this global economic crisis.

Living in the wealthy Jiangsu province, home to the city I live in (Suzhou), Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou (VERY wealthy cities), and various government projects I'd call the crown jewels of the governments efforts at modernization it is hard to imagine what the rest of the country is like from time to time. Due to the lack of internet and the lack of available information I havn't exactly been up to date on certain things.

For instance, in todays news alone, Bloomberg reported the following:

1 – Aluminum slumps by limit in Shanghai on Production Speculation
2 – Baosteel (China's biggest steel-maker) faces “most difficult” period in 30 years on Crisis
4 – China's small businesses face “tough winter,” more closures

“Small companies face a “tough winter,” said Li, whose organization claimed 76,000 members in the first half of this year. Two-thirds of China's small toy makers closed in the first nine months, according to customs data."

So in conclusion... as I stated above, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. If the rich countries of the world don't start buying again, China will stop growing as fast as it has been.  That is just how it is.  A large portion of the Chinese economy is still heavily depended on exports, and if that disappears it doesn't matter what happens on the domestic front. 

China will have to face the facts.  The effects will be catastrophic and horribly de-stabilizing. Which is why China is going to try to do everything in its power to present such a catastrophe from occurring, and if that means helping out more to revive the global economy I think China will assume a more active leadership role.  So far it seems they have.  How far they will go will only be seen in the months to come.

It's anyone guessing game at this point. Lets see where the next few months lead.  

Thursday, November 6, 2008

New Line: Peru in focus


1) IMF reasserts trust in Peru's growth despite global financial crisis

Lima, Nov. 05 (ANDINA).- First Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund, John Lipsky, attending the XV APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting met with the Peruvian Minister of Economy, Luis Miguel Valdivieso and with officials of the Central Bank of Reserves to discuss about the global financial crisis and its impact in Peru.

“As representative of the IMF I trust that Peru is ready to face the global financial crisis and it will continue with its sustainable growth within this context. Both, Peru and Chile, have good conditions to face these swings of the international economy”, stated the official who, at the same time, congratulated president-elect Barack Obama of the United States of America.

...

Click here to access the full article from Andina.com


2) Peru and Chile to become world economy locomotive machines according to Andina.com

Trujillo, Nov. 05 (ANDINA).- Peru and Chile will become world economy locomotives due to their economic dynamism and solid basis, and before the lower growth rate to be registered by United States and Europe as a result of the international financial crisis, Chile’s Finance minister, Andrés Velasco, said Wednesday.

“Emerging countries of Asia, Latin America, and Africa will continue growing next year, and in some way, they will become the locomotives of the world economy. Therefore, our voice is more important than ever, which is based on our own experiences and achievements", he said.

He pointed out that the international situation is difficult; however, Latin American countries like Peru and Chile have taken preventive measures and can face the financial crisis with their fiscal discipline and strong fundamentals, as well as with their high levels of investment, external balance, resources and liquidity.

...

Click here to access the full article from Andina.com


3) Peru's natural gas production rose 30.1% in January-October

Lima, Nov. 05 (ANDINA).- Peru's natural gas production reached 98,906.68 million cubic feet from January to October 2008, registering a growth of 30.01 percent compared to the same period last year, state oil agency PeruPetro reported Wednesday.

PeruPetro pointed out that the production increase was mainly because of greater consumption in electric power stations.

The average daily production of natural gas in October was 353.74 million cubic feet, which represents a reduction of 5.03 percent compared to last September.

...

Click here to access the full story from Andina.com

Monday, November 3, 2008

News Line: BRIC Countries, US-Peru ties to grow stronger says presidential hopeful Barack Obama (special thanks to Bloomberg LP for this post)

1)  India and China step up protection from global crisis -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India and China are accelerating efforts to prop up growth as a global slump threatens the world's fastest-expanding major economies.

The Reserve Bank of India on Nov. 1 lowered its benchmark interest rate for the second time in two weeks, and for the first time in 11 years reduced the amount of money lenders are required to keep in government bonds. China's central bank removed temporary controls over loans to maintain ``relatively fast'' growth, Xinhua News Agency reported Nov. 1, three days after cutting its key rate for the third time in two months.

...

Emerging Asian economies that account for one-fifth of world growth are being dragged down as their main markets in the U.S. and Europe contract, increasing the likelihood of a global recession. Policy makers in India and China are also boosting spending to prevent their economies from going under.

...

China's Premier Wen Jiabao says sustaining economic growth is the government's ``first priority.'' China has already raised export incentives, cut costs for home buyers and pledged infrastructure spending.

India and China need to move fast to implement their stimulus plans, with growth already slowing in Asia's second- and third-largest economies amid weaker foreign demand.

Click here to read the full article from Bloomberg LP


2)  China's stocks drop to a two-year low -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP

China's stocks fell to the lowest in almost two years, led by industrial companies, after a report showed China's manufacturing contracted amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

...

The CSI 300 The CSI 300 has slumped 69 percent this year, making it Asia's worst-performing benchmark index. Stocks have fallen amid concern demand for Chinese products will decline as the global credit crisis drags the world's largest economies into recession.

...

Net income at the 487 companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's main board rose 3.4 percent in the first three quarters, a fraction of the 89 percent increase a year earlier, according to data in a statement released by the bourse today.

Economy Slows

China's economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the three months through September as export orders shrank and industrial production waned. The expansion cooled for a fifth straight quarter, to a 9 percent gain from a year earlier.

Click here to read the full article courtesy of Bloomberg LP


3)  Subbarao Abandons India 'Inflation Vigil,' Cuts Rates -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP
 
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Indian Central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao has abandoned the "inflation vigil'' he outlined just 10 days ago in his inaugural monetary policy statement.

For the first time since 1997, the Reserve Bank of India on Nov. 1 deployed all three of its main tools to shore up growth after inter-bank lending rates climbed to 21 percent. Economists at Yes Bank Ltd. and Standard Chartered Bank predict more interest-rate cuts following the weekend reduction.

``India's central bank has no other option but to focus on economic expansion," said Shubhada M. Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. ``Global cues have turned against growth and it was surprising to see the hawkish tones on inflation'' last month.

Subbarao, less than two months into the job, has grappled with monetary policy at a time when inflation is double the central bank's target and a global downturn threatens to hit the economy. The central bank's renewed focus on growth aligns with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's push to buoy the economy ahead of elections due by May.

The decision to cut rates on Nov. 1 was a U-turn from the stance Subbarao spelled out in his first statement. At that time, he said price pressures could come from lower farm production, volatile oil prices and a weaker rupee.

...

Click here to read the rest of the article courtesy of Bloomberg LP


4) BRIC see no relief even as rally lures stock bulls -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Forget last week's record 20 percent gain in emerging-market stocks. Hard times are ahead for equities in Brazil, Russia, India and China, some of the world's biggest money managers say.

Even with developing-nation shares trading at their cheapest levels in a decade, financial crises in Hungary and Pakistan that required international rescue packages and concern that economies from Turkey to Argentina are also teetering prompted investors to pull out of emerging-market funds at a record pace.

RBC Capital Markets cut its estimates on Oct. 23 for 2009 economic growth in Brazil to 2.5 percent from 4 percent and Russia to 4 percent from 6 percent. That may undermine analysts' forecasts for a 14.5 percent increase in earnings at a time when the global credit crunch seized up lending from Sao Paulo to Seoul and a slump in 24 of 25 developing-nation currencies last month inflated the costs of repaying dollar-denominated debt.

...

Click here to read the full article courtesy of Bloomberg LP

5)  Brazil central bank to signal interest rate outlook: week ahead -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP


Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank may provide signals on the outlook for interest rates after halting six months of increases to weigh an economic slowdown against inflationary pressure from a weakening currency.

Economists will be closely reading the minutes from the bank's Oct. 28-29 meeting, to be published Nov. 6, to gauge whether its unanimous decision to pause rate increases herald a change in policy.

...

Click here to read the full article courtesy of Bloomberg LP


6) After Colorado rally Obama says U.S. - Peru ties to grow stronger -- courtesy of Living  in Peru

RPP Noticias, a local news agency in Peru had the chance to speak with Barack Obama after his final campaign stop in Colorado on Saturday November 1.

After a festive meeting with thousands of jubilant supporters dancing in the streets, Obama affirmed to RPP reporters that the relationship between the United States and Peru would grow closer and stronger.

RPP correspondents explained Obama made these statements as he was leaving his rally, which was compared by Peru reporters to the presentation of a famous show-business star.

...

Click here to read the full article courtesy of Living in Peru and RPP Noticias

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Latin America in focus: Commodities, food and South-South Cooperation (delayed post from Oct 30)

1) Brazil Petrobras agrees to explore for oil offshore Cuba – Benito's take

Brazil frequently enjoys assuming the role as a leader in the developing world of promoting South-South Cooperation.  This time the nation has agreed to help Cuba explore for oil and gas. Brazil's Petrobras is expected to sign an agreement with Cuba for deep-water oil and gas exploration during President Lula da Silva's two day visit to the island this week.

Cuban media is reporting both sides will “sign a contract for the production of hydrocarbons.” No further details have been reported, but the Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque has stated he “anticipates Cuba will sign in the presence of Lula da Silva a very important agreement for oil exploration in deep water.”

Although the details are shady at best, it no less is a sign of Brazil further developing its reach in promoting economic cooperation among developing nations, with the pretext of mutual economic development.

To read more about this development
check out this article published by Merco Press.



2) Petrobras Transpetro unit won't delay 49-tanker plan (update 2) courtesy of Bloomberg LP

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The transport unit of Petroleo Brasileiro SA will be able to maintain a 49-ship fleet expansion program because it has sufficient financing from a government fund and can ignore the world credit crunch, the unit's president said.

Brazil's Merchant Marine Fund, managed by state-development bank BNDES, has enough cash to pay the $2.5 billion needed for 26 tankers that have already been ordered, said Sergio Machado, president of Rio de Janeiro-based Transpetro, as the unit is known. The fund can also finance another 23 ships that will be ordered by the end of the year, he said.

State-controlled Petrobras, as Transpetro's parent is known, may delay some investments as oil prices fall and credit becomes scarce, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said Oct. 20. The credit crunch may force the cancellation of 20 percent of the deepwater oil rigs under construction, Brian Uhlmer, analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston, said.

``Everything regarding our shipbuilding program is defined and is part of Brazil's strategic plan,'' Machado said in a phone interview from his office. ``The Transpetro program is fully financed.''

Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg LP



3) Favorable 2009 beef export prospects for Brazil and Argentina, courtesy of Merco Press

Beef exports are forecast to rise nearly 2% during 2009 as gains by Brazil, Argentina and the United States outweigh downturns in Australian and New Zealand shipments according to the US Cattle network.

As the world’s leading trader Brazilian exports are forecast to spring back nearly 5% to over 2.0 million tons. Shipments are projected to decline in 2008 for the first time since 1996. However, by overcoming sanitary barriers, it is now poised to regain sales to Chile, EU-27 and other key markets...

...

In Argentina exports are forecast to expand 20% to 480,000 tons in 2009 after plummeting an expected 25% in 2008.

The rebound stems from the Argentine government setting a higher export quota, cattle and beef supplies not expected to be limited by farmer strikes, and thermo-processed product to be exported outside of the quota.

Click here to access the full article from Merco Press



4) Venezuela books 10.252 billion barrels more in oil reserves, courtesy of Dow Jones Newswires

Venezuela said Wednesday it was adding 10.251 billion barrels of crude to its national reserves as part of an ongoing review of its hydrocarbon reserves.

With this increase, the oil-rich country's total reserves now amount to 152.561 billion, making Venezuela the country with the second largest crude reserves, the Venezuelan oil ministry said in a statement.

Click here to access the full article from Rigzone
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=68576



5) Chile trims 2008 copper output forecast again, courtesy of the Mining-Journal

Chile on Wednesday trimmed its 2008 copper output forecast for the second time since July, this time to 5.45Mt, citing operational issues but not slumping prices for the metal.

Limited financing due to the global credit crisis may delay or cancel some new projects, said Eduardo Titelman, executive vice-president of Chile`s state copper commission Cochilco, one of the world`s leading copper think-tanks.

Copper prices rose above US$2/lb on Wednesday, but they remained less than half the record levels of over US$4/lb hit in July. A global credit crunch and fears the world could enter a recession have hit demand for metals like copper, heavily used in the auto and construction industries.

Click here to access the full article from the Mining-Journal
http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=5174