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Re(visions) of Mexico. What I’m up to
5 weeks ago
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Special Report: Is the Grim Commodities Outlook Prices in? -- Bloomberg
Coverage from Sao Paulo, Brazil: Emerging Markets Dropped in Second Half, Morgan Stanley's Index Plunging 55% for the Year
Friday, January 9, 2009
South-South Cooperation -- Ecuador seeks $280 million credit line from Iran
Ecuador is reaching out to its new buddy, Iran for a credit line of $280 million usd to finance pipeline and other oil-sector related projects according to what Mining and Oil Minister Derlis Palacios told the Dow Jones Newswires yesterday (click here for the article, provided via Rigzone).
Senor Palacios seems confident Ecuador will get the money too. Stating in a telephone interview "We are asking for a credit line of $280 million, especially to invest in our pipelines. We are sure that this money will come."
This is all very intriguing. I must admit Correa has done some good for Ecuador and my opinions on him have personally evolved over the years, and in a positive way. However, messing around with Iran on the heels of months of intense fighting with foreign companies and THEN causing hysteria with the country's bonds will definitely reverberate for years to come in the international community.
Yes, it is true Ecuador probably would probably have a hard time securing a loan from any normal western financial institution and that it has all the right in the world to look elsewhere. I just question the path Correa and the political big whigs in Ecuador think is best for the future of Ecuador.
If the political situation changes and new leadership seeks to pursue a different path, one less antagonistic of the international community perhaps, it will be a hard process of re-affirming confidence after all of it.
However, if the world was fair I think Ecuador should be able to go ask Iran for a loan if it wants. They are in the end both developing countries that could probably benefit from cooperating with one another. Sadly we don't live in a fair world, and considering the degree to which Ecuador is connected to the international financial system, I think it should have thought a bit more carefully about its foreign policy in the last year or so.
Senor Palacios seems confident Ecuador will get the money too. Stating in a telephone interview "We are asking for a credit line of $280 million, especially to invest in our pipelines. We are sure that this money will come."
This is all very intriguing. I must admit Correa has done some good for Ecuador and my opinions on him have personally evolved over the years, and in a positive way. However, messing around with Iran on the heels of months of intense fighting with foreign companies and THEN causing hysteria with the country's bonds will definitely reverberate for years to come in the international community.
Yes, it is true Ecuador probably would probably have a hard time securing a loan from any normal western financial institution and that it has all the right in the world to look elsewhere. I just question the path Correa and the political big whigs in Ecuador think is best for the future of Ecuador.
If the political situation changes and new leadership seeks to pursue a different path, one less antagonistic of the international community perhaps, it will be a hard process of re-affirming confidence after all of it.
However, if the world was fair I think Ecuador should be able to go ask Iran for a loan if it wants. They are in the end both developing countries that could probably benefit from cooperating with one another. Sadly we don't live in a fair world, and considering the degree to which Ecuador is connected to the international financial system, I think it should have thought a bit more carefully about its foreign policy in the last year or so.
Commodities in focus -- Copper rises in London trading as China begins to stockpile raw materials
The commodity sector has been hit hard by the global economic crisis, especially in terms of the speed of its decline. For much of 2008 as other equities faltered, shares of commodity and energy stocks seemed immune, many times leading the major US indices into the green despite poor performance in other sectors.
When markets began to tank between September – November this all changed. Year to date (2008), oil is down around 60%, copper 50%, natural gas 20%, etc. As commodities plummeted miners profits shrank, exploration slowed, new mining projects became unfeasible in light of depressed prices and speculators who had been relying on energy and raw materials as a safe investment or inflation hedge withdrew their money.
If the stimulus packages being enacted by governments around the world successfully help to re-invigorate the global financial system and we see a recovery in confidence and economic activity the recession may end sooner than expected. If this happens commodity demand will once again explode, especially considering how so many producers and explorers have scaled back their operations.
China is not oblivious to this. Much like China's logic behind securing resources in Africa to avoid supply disruptions, China is now concerned about supply disruptions that may occur if demand picks up.
Bloomberg and Reuters reported this morning that China's Reserve Bureau, the country's stockpiling agency, is buying aluminum. Analysts seem to think (and I agree in this situation) that if they are buying up aluminum at cheap prices, they will do the same for other metals.
“Aluminum inventory in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 18% in the past week, the largest decline since April 2007, figures from the exchange today showed. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources said two days ago the country would build emergency stockpiles of copper and other items to guard against potential supply disruptions.”
(click here to access the full article from Bloomberg, republished by the Mining Journal)
China is smart to do this, with the country's massive foreign reserves and depressed commodity prices it makes sense for them to stockpile the resources they need to ensure their development. China is worried about its slowing economy because of the potential for political unrest in bad economic times.
Considering the fact China continued to purchase commodities when they where selling at their recent historical highs, it must feel like shopping at a giant fire sale for the Chinese who can now scoop up a huge stockpile of raw materials and energy for depressed prices.
When markets began to tank between September – November this all changed. Year to date (2008), oil is down around 60%, copper 50%, natural gas 20%, etc. As commodities plummeted miners profits shrank, exploration slowed, new mining projects became unfeasible in light of depressed prices and speculators who had been relying on energy and raw materials as a safe investment or inflation hedge withdrew their money.
If the stimulus packages being enacted by governments around the world successfully help to re-invigorate the global financial system and we see a recovery in confidence and economic activity the recession may end sooner than expected. If this happens commodity demand will once again explode, especially considering how so many producers and explorers have scaled back their operations.
China is not oblivious to this. Much like China's logic behind securing resources in Africa to avoid supply disruptions, China is now concerned about supply disruptions that may occur if demand picks up.
Bloomberg and Reuters reported this morning that China's Reserve Bureau, the country's stockpiling agency, is buying aluminum. Analysts seem to think (and I agree in this situation) that if they are buying up aluminum at cheap prices, they will do the same for other metals.
“Aluminum inventory in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 18% in the past week, the largest decline since April 2007, figures from the exchange today showed. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources said two days ago the country would build emergency stockpiles of copper and other items to guard against potential supply disruptions.”
(click here to access the full article from Bloomberg, republished by the Mining Journal)
China is smart to do this, with the country's massive foreign reserves and depressed commodity prices it makes sense for them to stockpile the resources they need to ensure their development. China is worried about its slowing economy because of the potential for political unrest in bad economic times.
Considering the fact China continued to purchase commodities when they where selling at their recent historical highs, it must feel like shopping at a giant fire sale for the Chinese who can now scoop up a huge stockpile of raw materials and energy for depressed prices.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Copper, Oil Lead Decline as Global Growth Slows reports Bloomberg LP
Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and crude oil led a decline in commodities on concern that slower global economic growth will curb demand for raw materials.
Copper headed for its biggest weekly drop since March, crude oil fell to the lowest compared with closing prices since May and silver reached its cheapest since January. Italy's second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank, the statistics office in Rome said today. Japan's economy probably contracted in the three months ended June, according to the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
``People understand that we might face a difficult two or three quarters ahead of us,'' said Christoph Eibl, who helps manage more than $1 billion of commodities at Tiberius Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland. ``Industrial-related commodities will not outperform.''
....................................
Click here to access the full story from Bloomberg LP
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Investors begin re-thinking oil positions in their portfolio's
http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com -- Quietly, hedge funds and company insiders are moving into position to profit from an imminent drop in oil prices. Find out where they invest.
http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com -- Despite temporary pullbacks, crude oil prices are again setting new historic record highs. But the beginnings of an alternate money flow are becoming visible.
http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com -- Despite temporary pullbacks, crude oil prices are again setting new historic record highs. But the beginnings of an alternate money flow are becoming visible.
Friday, July 18, 2008
South American Energy in focus
Venezuela's PdVSA Reports Successful Oil Drilling Ecuador
A slew of energy developments in a handful of countries in South America has made headlines in the past day or so. For starters Venezuela and Ecuador made headlines this morning once again... this time for successful drilling and exploration in the Amazonian region. The newly established supply of crude will eventually be sent to the new refinery being build on the pacific coast.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone.
Petrobras' Production Soars 3.3% More in June
Petrobras’ average oil and natural gas production abroad was 218,117 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in June, 8.1%.
Added to the volume lifted from the domestic fields, Petrobras’ total production in June set a monthly record, topping out at 2,421,155 barrels of oil equivalent, 3.3% more than a year ago and 2.3% higher than May 2008.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone.
Arduous Process of getting the Camisea facilities in Peru up and running
- Wood Snag 3-Year Maintenance Contract for Camisea Facilities
The Camisea Project comprises the exploitation The San Martin and Cashiriari fields natural gas fields, the construction and operation of two pipelines, one for natural gas (NG) and one for natural gas liquids (NGL) and the distribution network for natural gas in Lima and Callao. The pipelines wiII make NG and NGL available for domestic consumption and for export.
Natural gas wiII be transported to the main consumption center in Lima, where it will be used for residential and industrial purposes and to generate electricity, that will then be distributed nationwide through Peru’s existing transmission infrastructure (click here to read more about the Camisea Project)
Wood Group Production Facilities has been awarded a three-year, performance-based contract by Pluspetrol Peru Corporation to provide integrated maintenance services for the Camisea facilities in Peru. The Camisea project includes the largest natural gas field in the region.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone
Shell to invest $300m in search for oil and natural gas in Peru
Royal Dutch Shell is ready to invest as much as $300 million in exploring for oil and natural gas in Peruvian waters as part of a agreement with BPZ Energy, executives from the two companies said Thursday.
......................
In March, U.S.- and Peruvian-owned BPZ found an estimated 60 million barrels' worth of crude oil and 40 million cubic feet of natural gas in the same region off Peru's northern Pacific coast.
The accord announced Thursday calls for Shell to spend up to $300 million on exploration and - if reserves are found - exploitation of natural gas, while BPZ will put the same amount into searching for crude oil along with an additional $150 million to build an electric plant in the area.
Under the deal, BPZ will get 51.75 percent of any oil or gas produced and Shell will claim the rest.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone
Geopark Grabs up Additional Petroleum Block in Chile
GeoPark Holdings Limited announced that the Ministry of Mining in Chile has awarded the Otway Block in southern Chile to a consortium consisting of GEOPARK (42%), Methanex Corporation of Canada (16%) and Wintershall Energia SA, a division of BASF Ag of Germany (42%).
The Otway Block is a large new attractive exploration area (5,992 square kilometers) located in the Magallanes region near GEOPARK's Fell Block operation in Chile. GEOPARK is the first and only private-sector oil and gas producer in Chile and the addition of the new Otway Block will further enhance GEOPARK's position as the premier private-sector oil and gas operator in Chile.
Click here to access a previous post in regard to GEOPARK's natural gas discoveries in the Magallanes Region -- published on South-South Cooperation on June 17th, 2008.
Click here to access the full article from Rigzone
Colombia to create oil price stabilization fund
Colombia's government is creating an oil price stabilization fund (FEPC) that will be used to cushion domestic oil prices from unexpected rises on international markets, government news agency SNE reported.
Congress has approved the fund, which is included in the national development plan and must go to the president for final authorization. The finance ministry would administer the fund, which would receive financing from the existing oil stabilization fund (FAEP) owned by state oil company Ecopetrol.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone
A slew of energy developments in a handful of countries in South America has made headlines in the past day or so. For starters Venezuela and Ecuador made headlines this morning once again... this time for successful drilling and exploration in the Amazonian region. The newly established supply of crude will eventually be sent to the new refinery being build on the pacific coast.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone.
Petrobras' Production Soars 3.3% More in June
Petrobras’ average oil and natural gas production abroad was 218,117 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in June, 8.1%.
Added to the volume lifted from the domestic fields, Petrobras’ total production in June set a monthly record, topping out at 2,421,155 barrels of oil equivalent, 3.3% more than a year ago and 2.3% higher than May 2008.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone.
Arduous Process of getting the Camisea facilities in Peru up and running
- Wood Snag 3-Year Maintenance Contract for Camisea Facilities
The Camisea Project comprises the exploitation The San Martin and Cashiriari fields natural gas fields, the construction and operation of two pipelines, one for natural gas (NG) and one for natural gas liquids (NGL) and the distribution network for natural gas in Lima and Callao. The pipelines wiII make NG and NGL available for domestic consumption and for export.
Natural gas wiII be transported to the main consumption center in Lima, where it will be used for residential and industrial purposes and to generate electricity, that will then be distributed nationwide through Peru’s existing transmission infrastructure (click here to read more about the Camisea Project)
Wood Group Production Facilities has been awarded a three-year, performance-based contract by Pluspetrol Peru Corporation to provide integrated maintenance services for the Camisea facilities in Peru. The Camisea project includes the largest natural gas field in the region.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone
Shell to invest $300m in search for oil and natural gas in Peru
Royal Dutch Shell is ready to invest as much as $300 million in exploring for oil and natural gas in Peruvian waters as part of a agreement with BPZ Energy, executives from the two companies said Thursday.
......................
In March, U.S.- and Peruvian-owned BPZ found an estimated 60 million barrels' worth of crude oil and 40 million cubic feet of natural gas in the same region off Peru's northern Pacific coast.
The accord announced Thursday calls for Shell to spend up to $300 million on exploration and - if reserves are found - exploitation of natural gas, while BPZ will put the same amount into searching for crude oil along with an additional $150 million to build an electric plant in the area.
Under the deal, BPZ will get 51.75 percent of any oil or gas produced and Shell will claim the rest.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone
Geopark Grabs up Additional Petroleum Block in Chile
GeoPark Holdings Limited announced that the Ministry of Mining in Chile has awarded the Otway Block in southern Chile to a consortium consisting of GEOPARK (42%), Methanex Corporation of Canada (16%) and Wintershall Energia SA, a division of BASF Ag of Germany (42%).
The Otway Block is a large new attractive exploration area (5,992 square kilometers) located in the Magallanes region near GEOPARK's Fell Block operation in Chile. GEOPARK is the first and only private-sector oil and gas producer in Chile and the addition of the new Otway Block will further enhance GEOPARK's position as the premier private-sector oil and gas operator in Chile.
Click here to access a previous post in regard to GEOPARK's natural gas discoveries in the Magallanes Region -- published on South-South Cooperation on June 17th, 2008.
Click here to access the full article from Rigzone
Colombia to create oil price stabilization fund
Colombia's government is creating an oil price stabilization fund (FEPC) that will be used to cushion domestic oil prices from unexpected rises on international markets, government news agency SNE reported.
Congress has approved the fund, which is included in the national development plan and must go to the president for final authorization. The finance ministry would administer the fund, which would receive financing from the existing oil stabilization fund (FAEP) owned by state oil company Ecopetrol.
Click here to access the full story from Rigzone
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Macro-economic frenzy... expecations, natural disasters, inflation, union strikes? what more?
Couple headlines that have grabbed my attention in recent days.
1) Unions strikes
Unions representing truck drivers are striking across the globe from Spain to England to South Korea, in protest of rising fuel prices, eroded purchasing power of their salaries, and feeling generally marginalized in society.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011212516
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200806/200806100014.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a_EyvKsmJHSM&refer=uk
Peru-- LATAM fastest growing economy in 2007, just recently became the #1 global producer of silver, stands as the #2 producer of copper next to its neighbor Chile, and is the #6 producer of gold in the world. Peru in other is booming thanks to demand for copper, fish meal, and other commodities from Asia, and, second from countries and investors seeking to use metals like gold as a hedge vs inflation. This morning Peru's unhappy workers, currently in protest, due to the government failing to pass a resolution which puts ceilings on the level of profit sharing allowed. 28,000 miners from Peru's biggest mining union have postponed their strike in various mines until June 30-- many silver, copper, zing and gold (Dow newswire, accessed via Resource Investor).
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43447
2) Asia plummets
A string of disasters in what susposed to be a continued boom year for the Chinese economy have crippled and done a great deal of damage to the new emerging super power of the world. First with the worst snow storms in 60 years which hit Southern China earlier this year-- where most of the countries economic activity is conducted, then with the anti-china/pro-tibet protests which hit the world stage during their Olympic torch rally, and last--the recent horrendous earth quake that hit Sichuan province. China's exchanges where down almost 5% yesterday at night one point, however it did not lead to the crash of Feb/March 2007, when Chinese market corrections led the way in a short global correction in stock markets. It seems the financial systems of the world has priced in the downside of this years problems in China and general difficulties which will face Asia in the wake of rising food and energy costs.
3) All over the world countries are concerned about inflation. Worse, speculation on metals and other commodities isn't helping the $, still the most circulated currency on earth rally, which would ultimately be helpful to the global economy as a whole. Its scary to see fed officials from the US and even the EU coming out and making comments on inflation. What action will they take? What ramifications will it have?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/bernankes-inflation-comments-push-futures-lower/
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/10/markets/stockswatch/?postversion=2008061008
http://glickreport.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/06/10/intervene-already/
What to make of all of this? Well i'm going with the plan of finding a few equities I feel are not still over-valued and are in a good position to retain market position and keep earnings expectations due to their unique business and or market niche. Follow emerging markets and where they head-- as the olympics get underway I'm still confident Asia will have a rally, but if the general health of financial systems of the globe don't improve before then it will be a short lived rally. Follow the price of energy and forecasting the future of emerging markets and the general global macroeconomic health of the world economy will be easier to follow. Inflation in food stuffs is also key... Rising oil and energy prices may hurt everyone-- especially the poor, but when even food is sky rockets in price, the people of the emerging world will feel it extra hard, potentially leading to further slow downs and social instability in countries.
1) Unions strikes
Unions representing truck drivers are striking across the globe from Spain to England to South Korea, in protest of rising fuel prices, eroded purchasing power of their salaries, and feeling generally marginalized in society.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011212516
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200806/200806100014.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a_EyvKsmJHSM&refer=uk
Peru-- LATAM fastest growing economy in 2007, just recently became the #1 global producer of silver, stands as the #2 producer of copper next to its neighbor Chile, and is the #6 producer of gold in the world. Peru in other is booming thanks to demand for copper, fish meal, and other commodities from Asia, and, second from countries and investors seeking to use metals like gold as a hedge vs inflation. This morning Peru's unhappy workers, currently in protest, due to the government failing to pass a resolution which puts ceilings on the level of profit sharing allowed. 28,000 miners from Peru's biggest mining union have postponed their strike in various mines until June 30-- many silver, copper, zing and gold (Dow newswire, accessed via Resource Investor).
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43447
2) Asia plummets
A string of disasters in what susposed to be a continued boom year for the Chinese economy have crippled and done a great deal of damage to the new emerging super power of the world. First with the worst snow storms in 60 years which hit Southern China earlier this year-- where most of the countries economic activity is conducted, then with the anti-china/pro-tibet protests which hit the world stage during their Olympic torch rally, and last--the recent horrendous earth quake that hit Sichuan province. China's exchanges where down almost 5% yesterday at night one point, however it did not lead to the crash of Feb/March 2007, when Chinese market corrections led the way in a short global correction in stock markets. It seems the financial systems of the world has priced in the downside of this years problems in China and general difficulties which will face Asia in the wake of rising food and energy costs.
3) All over the world countries are concerned about inflation. Worse, speculation on metals and other commodities isn't helping the $, still the most circulated currency on earth rally, which would ultimately be helpful to the global economy as a whole. Its scary to see fed officials from the US and even the EU coming out and making comments on inflation. What action will they take? What ramifications will it have?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/bernankes-inflation-comments-push-futures-lower/
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/10/markets/stockswatch/?postversion=2008061008
http://glickreport.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/06/10/intervene-already/
What to make of all of this? Well i'm going with the plan of finding a few equities I feel are not still over-valued and are in a good position to retain market position and keep earnings expectations due to their unique business and or market niche. Follow emerging markets and where they head-- as the olympics get underway I'm still confident Asia will have a rally, but if the general health of financial systems of the globe don't improve before then it will be a short lived rally. Follow the price of energy and forecasting the future of emerging markets and the general global macroeconomic health of the world economy will be easier to follow. Inflation in food stuffs is also key... Rising oil and energy prices may hurt everyone-- especially the poor, but when even food is sky rockets in price, the people of the emerging world will feel it extra hard, potentially leading to further slow downs and social instability in countries.
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