Commodities in focus: Investment, Production Forecasts, New Discoveries and Project Cancellations from South America

The commodity market is having a mid-recession crisis. This is especially troubling for the major commodity producers in South America. Forecasts of when the global economy will recover from the current financial crisis to range from the 2nd half of 2009 into 2010.


Investing your rainy-day fund from the “boom years” and what it means for Chile

For a country like Chile, which has roughly $22 billion of saved reserves from the four-year boom in copper prices (Chile is the world's #1 producer of copper), recession is going to mean tapping into those savings in order to invigorate demand.

Chile has earned a reputation for being a very efficiently managed economy in South America. This, combined with the fact the country has saved for bad times has created a sense that the Chile is in the best position to weather the global recession.

Fund managers and analysts at Scotiabank Sud Americano SA and Santander are of this opinion and emphasize that so far, Chile's Ipsa Index is the best preforming Latin American benchmark, with a gain so far in 2009 of 5.1%.

(click here to read more on this topic from James Attwood's article on Bloomberg)



New Investments & South-South Cooperation: Brazil-Bolivia

In other commodity news, there is a new example of growing South-South Cooperation to report, this time between Brazil and Bolivia. Brazilian oil conglomerate Petrobras has announced plans to invest $1.1 billion in natural gas projects in Bolivia.

Brazil’s state oil company “has made the commitment to invest $1.1 billion in the coming years,” Lula said at a press conference late yesterday in the Brazilian town of Ladario, which borders Bolivia. “We need gas and we will act with the Bolivian government to fulfill that need.”

(click here to access the full article from Bloomberg)

Bolivia is proven to have the second-largest natural gas reserves in South America after Venezuela. Much like Venezuela, foreign investors are quite concerned with the political situation and as a result the flows of FDI in Bolivia have taken a serious hit in recent years.

However, with energy demand holding steady in Brazil and Argentina, Bolivia's current inability to meet supply contracts with the two nations, this is a smart and strategic move on Brazil's part. Furthermore, with ongoing issues concerning the the price Brazil pays for electric power generated by the Itaipu dam (the world's largest hydroelectric plant, located on the Parana River along the Brazil-Paraguay boarder), it is wise of Brazil to secure its energy needs from a additional source in the region.

(click here to access a recent article concerning this issue between Brazil and Paraguay, courtesy of La Presna Latina)


Exploration / New discovery in Brazil

Moving on... discoveries / exploration continue. Spanish company, Repsol has made a oil discovery offshore Brazil. Repsol announced this weekend, it had found “traces” of hydrocarbons at a deep water well being drilled off the Brazilian coast.

Exploration work was headed by a consortium of companies of which Repsol has the largest stake in. Brazil's Petrobras and Australia's Woodside Petroleum Limited are the other two partners.

It's good news to see companies continuing with resource exploration. When the global economy recovers, which it eventually will—commodities will be back in the headlines. The companies which have managed to brave the recession will find themselves rewarded as consumption increases and buyers line up, ready and willing to pay a premium.

(Click here to read more on this discovery from MercoPress)


Production in 2009 – Copper & gold production set to rise in Peru

Peruvian news agency, Andina has reported Peru's mining companies will produce more copper, gold and silver this year in a bid to offset slumping prices, according to Finance Minister Luis Valdivieso.

In the world, Peru ranks as the third-largest producer of copper, zinc and tin. The fifth largest producer of gold, and the number one producer of Silver. None the less, Peru is confident that by raising output it will be able to cope with the global downturn.

However, if the global economy does not recover as quickly, Peru may find increasing output was not the best method to deal with the situation in the long term. If other producers in the world economy do the same, the market will hypothetically be flooded with supply.

With base metal prices down roughly 25-40%, gold and silver down 14% and 43% respectively, this does seem the most logical path for Peru to take at the moment. The ideal situation I assume the big shots making decisions down in Peru can hope is that the global economy does pick up in the 2nd half of 2009, so that prices do not fall to levels in which mining production becomes economically inviable.

(click here to access Andina's article on this topic)


Baosteel and Vale cancel steel project due to lack of credit – BNAmericas

Cia Vale do Rio Doce and Baosteel have canceled their steel project in the Anchieta complex, in the Espirito Santo state of Brazil, the groups announced.

The companies blamed the global economic crisis, which has seen leading steelmakers worldwide cutting their steel production. As result of the global cut in demand, Baosteel proposed the cancellation of the project and the liquidation of Companhia Siderúrgica Vitória (CSV).

(click here to access the full article from BNAmericas)

Emerging markets with complementary economies beginning to respond to developments and market movements from their fellow emerging markets

The recent mining strikes in Peru's Moquegua province, which in reality is not numerically that significant when you consider GLOBAL copper production, and Peru's total copper production from other regions has no less grown in influence to the point it can affect markets in various places. Examine the articles below, courtesy of many sources but cited here due to quality, reporting from my friends at Reuters. Oh... and Forbes for using Reuters report on their website headline 3...

Headline 1: Shanghai zinc up 1.8 pct, strikes lift copper! (Click here for full article)

Headline 2: India copper rises on supply concerns; zinc, lead rise (Click here for full article)

Headline 3: LME copper rises on Peru unrest, lead up 5 pct (click here for full article)

More in depth analysis to come tomorrow, but as it stands, it is increasingly interesting how interconnected emerging markets have become with one another.

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Side subject relating to post this morning about Bush's desire to life bans on offshore oil drilling.

And as usual, as I also stated in my earlier post, each side will simply dismiss one another. As I've said I don't know the politics behind each sides perspective to the extent necessary to make true judgments, but as I notice in Latin America when nothing but talk and argument happens I see happening here too in the US. Will continue to monitor and research subject for more in depth report to come.




And John Mc Cain jumping on the bandwagon... hehe =) and then Obama, countering. Oh... Politics.

Energy in focus: China-US talk energy cooperation, while US House of Rep pushes national renewable energy plan and Bush moves to end offshore oil ban

Two developments in the energy sector warrant attention, and two which are unfolding in parallel with one another.

I apologize for a slowdown in updates as of recent, took a bit of a mental break yesterday and was dragged into the Eurocup 2008 when I should have been working.

First, headlines from most major media have reported Chinese and US leaders are meeting in Annapolis, Maryland to discuss energy cooperation. A positive move in the right direction, as described by the attendees, it is about the time to two largest net importers of energy discuss ways to better manage energy supplies and cooperation around the world for the general good of the global economy.

Visiting Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan (front L) shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (front R) at the opening ceremony of the 4th round of China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue in Annapolis, Maryland, the United States of America, June 17, 2008. China and the United States on Tuesday started here their 4th round of Strategic Economic Dialogue. (Xinhua/Yao Dawei) <-- click here for full story from Xinhua Media.



There is also talk in the House of Representatives for renewing a bill which promotes the development of more sources of renewable energy. As reported by C-SPAN

"Despite federal initiatives going back to the 1970's, renewable electricity makes up less than 3% of the generation mix in the U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) chairs a Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee hearing to discuss the challenges and regional solutions to developing transmission for renewable-electricity resources."

Third, this morning good old President G. Bush made headlines saying he wants to lift the currently in place bans on offshore oil drilling. (See Reuters Article here)

In Washington, the White House press secretary, Dana Perino, said Mr. Bush would urge Congress to “pass legislation lifting the Congressional ban on safe, environmentally friendly offshore oil drilling,” adding, “The president believes Congress shouldn’t waste any more time.”

For a full report check out the article published by today's New York Times. You can view the complete article written by reporter Sheryl Stoleberg by clicking on this link.

My reaction from all these developments, is simply that every side is reacting irrationally to the fact we're paying 4+ / gallon at the pumps. Action does need to be taken, but as many steps forward in one direction, usually following the policy / plan of one side of the political spectrum (either Republican or Democrat), the other side has a tendency to denounce the other sides plans almost immediately. I am far from an expert on the US energy sector, so whether the democrats of republicans have a better plan to help the US with its energy demands, I truly do not know. However, it will definitely be better than Bush's promises that gas prices would go down after the war in Iraq... hehe

As soon as Bush made this proposal, of course Nancy Polosi immediately responded in kind, telling reporters "The president’s proposal sounds like another page from the administration’s energy policy that was literally written by the oil industry: give away more public resources to the very same oil companies that are sitting on 68 million acres of federal lands they’ve already leased.”