News reel: Economic Meltdown p2 – China / Asia

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Asian stocks tumble – The Straits Times – Jan 15, 2009

HONG KONG - ASIAN stock markets tumbled on Thursday, with Japan's benchmark sliding almost 5 per cent, on gloomy US holiday sales and renewed concerns about the banking industry.

Every market across Asian suffered steep declines, with broad-based selling hitting industries from energy to financials to exporters. A sharp drop in Japanese machinery pointed to a deepening recession in the world's No. 2 economy, while oil prices continued to fall on worries that the global economic slump will further weaken demand for crude.


China may bailout more – The Straits Times – Jan 15, 2009

BEIJING - CHINA is planning more help for its steel, textile, shipbuilding and other key industries, analysts said on Thursday, a day after the government unveiled a stimulus package for its ailing auto sector.


Chinese slowdown, serious risk for the global economy MercoPress – Jan 15, 2009

A severe economic slowdown in China is one of the biggest risks faced by the world this year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned. The WEF report said a hard landing for China's economy could create domestic social tensions and put stress on the global financial system.


Foreign Direct Investment in China Falls 5.7 Percent (Update3) – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) – Foreign Direct Investment in China declined for a third month, adding to the toll that recessions in the U.S. and Europe are taking on the world’s third-biggest economy.

Investment fell 5.7 percent to $5.98 billion in December from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said at a briefing in Beijing today. November’s decline was 36.5 percent.


China Home Prices to Continue Falling Until 2011, DTZ Says – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices and sales in China, which fell last year for the first time in a decade, will continue dropping until they reach a “reasonable” level and will rebound in 2011, property agency DTZ said.


Hong Kong Stocks Fall to Two-Month Low; Yue Yuen, HSBC Decline – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) – Hong Kong's benchmark stock index fell to the lowest in almost two months on concern slowing demand is deepening the global economic slump.


China-U.S. Ties to Get Stronger, Departing American Envoy Says – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009 Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The economies of the U.S. and China, together generating 30 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, will become increasingly interdependent in the next 30 years, said America’s longest-serving envoy to China.


China unveils support package to auto, steel industries – Xinhua – Jan 14, 2009

· China's State Council unveiled a support package for the auto and steel sectors Wednesday.
· The gov't will lower purchase tax on cars under 1.6 liters from 10% to 5% from Jan. 20 to Dec. 31.
· The plan also urges improvements in the credit system for car purchase loans.


SKorea to miss growth forecast - The Straits Times – Jan 15, 2009

SEOUL - SOUTH Korea's economic growth this year could fall below the central bank's forecast of 2 per cent as the global recession deepens, the country's second vice finance minister said in a prepared speech on Thursday.


India’s Sensex Falls to One-Month Low; Infosys Leads Declines – Bloomberg – Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- India’s benchmark stock index fell to the lowest in more than a month. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Technologies Ltd. led declines after a Canadian customer for their software services collapsed.


Satyam May Take 3 Months to Restate Accounts, Delaying Bailout – Bloomberg – Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) – Satyam Computer Services Ltd.'s new auditors may take three months to clear up an alleged $1 billion fraud at India's fourth-largest software exporter, delaying access to government funds.

Satyam fell 32 percent today after the government said it has no plans for a bailout until the board seeks aid. Satyam won't know how much it needs until auditors confirm assets and assess how much clients owe, director Deepak Parekh said. ``The government doesn't bail out every sick company,'' he said.


India’s Inflation Rate Falls, Paving Way for Stimulus (Update2) – Bloomberg – Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- India’s inflation slowed to an 11- month low, paving the way for further stimulus measures to bolster an economy expanding at the weakest pace in six years.

Hungry for IPO's in 2009? Do Chinese and Brazilian firms have the capacity or guts to test the market?

It seems just yesterday that Chinese IPO's where the talk of the town. Even if you were not buying them yourself, it still seemed as if everyone else was. When you consider what an IPO is, it's no wonder why the investment communities appetite for them has disappeared.

When companies go public they offer a certain portion of their company to shareholders. In exchange shareholders invest their money in hopes of seeing a given company grow and prosper. If a company grows and prospers, shareholders are rewarded by seeing the value of their investments rise. If the company preforms poorly investors see their investments loose value.

If you have cash lying around would you trust your money in a company looking to expand or finance some project in the context of the economic climate today?


Chinese companies are feeling the pinch, turning to banks instead the stock market to raise the capital they need. The Financial Times reports “Mainland companies last year raised a record $100bn in IPOs on exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong – far more than established bourses in New York or London.”

(Click here to access the full article from the Financial Times)

In response, the Chinese Government is attempting to encourage banks to lend to companies looking for expansion capital. The recent interest rate cuts make lending cheaper, which will help entice banks to lend, but if history repeats itself Chinese banks may find themselves with a great deal of outstanding loans that can not be repaid.

This happened in the late 90's and it could happen again. Especially if the Chinese economy is not able to weather the global recession as well as many hope. Additionally, many IPO's from 2006 and 2007 benefits not from legitimate investments from people who had faith in their business, but rather from speculative investors who wanted a piece of the profits.

Chinese media, Xinhua, reports Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PwC) expects IPO's will rise in value by 45% in the second half of 2009 as a result of the government stimulus package. PwC forecasts Companies will raise about 150 billion yuan (22 billion U.S. dollars) through IPOs in China in 2009.”

State media in China should be analyzed with a bit of skepticism for obvious reasons (it is filtered if you didn't know). This fact alone contradicts with the figures presented by the Financial Times that in 2009 over $100bn was raised. It would be nice to be told what base measure they are using when they figure the 45% increase. If anyone feels like checking out the PwC report you might be able to find out.

(Click here to access the full article from Xinhua)

Brazilian IPO's also seem to be having a tough time, as reported by Bloomberg LP today.

“The point isn’t that VisaNet isn’t interested in listing, but that there have been problems, in this market, in pricing the offer in a way that shareholders will be satisfied,” said Victor Mizusaki at Sao Paulo-based Itau Corretora, the brokerage unit of Brazil’s biggest non-state bank. “There is a deadline to turn in all the paperwork and to price the offer, and the time limit was running out.”

Brazil’s boom in IPOs dried up last year with only four companies going public compared with 64 in 2007 as the global financial crisis sent the benchmark Bovespa index down 41 percent and reduced investors’ appetite for riskier emerging-market assets. Companies raised more than 70 billion reais through initial and additional stock sales in 2007, according to data from exchange owner BM&FBovespa SA.

(Click here to access the full article from from Bloomberg LP)

All in all, I'd say IPO's are going to far and wide in the developing world for 2009. All these countries have seen the incredible attraction they garner when times are good and investors are flowing with confidence and money. They also see that when times are bad, people will pick and choose their investments very carefully. Meaning far less appetite for risky investments, in particular with companies that have yet to face the pressure of being traded and valued within the context of this chaotic and unpredictable market.