New Line: Peru in focus

1) IMF reasserts trust in Peru's growth despite global financial crisis

Lima, Nov. 05 (ANDINA).- First Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund, John Lipsky, attending the XV APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting met with the Peruvian Minister of Economy, Luis Miguel Valdivieso and with officials of the Central Bank of Reserves to discuss about the global financial crisis and its impact in Peru.

“As representative of the IMF I trust that Peru is ready to face the global financial crisis and it will continue with its sustainable growth within this context. Both, Peru and Chile, have good conditions to face these swings of the international economy”, stated the official who, at the same time, congratulated president-elect Barack Obama of the United States of America.

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2) Peru and Chile to become world economy locomotive machines according to Andina.com

Trujillo, Nov. 05 (ANDINA).- Peru and Chile will become world economy locomotives due to their economic dynamism and solid basis, and before the lower growth rate to be registered by United States and Europe as a result of the international financial crisis, Chile’s Finance minister, Andrés Velasco, said Wednesday.

“Emerging countries of Asia, Latin America, and Africa will continue growing next year, and in some way, they will become the locomotives of the world economy. Therefore, our voice is more important than ever, which is based on our own experiences and achievements", he said.

He pointed out that the international situation is difficult; however, Latin American countries like Peru and Chile have taken preventive measures and can face the financial crisis with their fiscal discipline and strong fundamentals, as well as with their high levels of investment, external balance, resources and liquidity.

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3) Peru's natural gas production rose 30.1% in January-October

Lima, Nov. 05 (ANDINA).- Peru's natural gas production reached 98,906.68 million cubic feet from January to October 2008, registering a growth of 30.01 percent compared to the same period last year, state oil agency PeruPetro reported Wednesday.

PeruPetro pointed out that the production increase was mainly because of greater consumption in electric power stations.

The average daily production of natural gas in October was 353.74 million cubic feet, which represents a reduction of 5.03 percent compared to last September.

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Analysis: Peruvian economy grows 10.3% during the 1st half of 2008

The Peruvian Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate on Thursday (September 11th) by 25 basis points to 6.5%.

On the surface international investors are increasingly starting to view Peru as a safe region for commodity plays and “alternative investment strategies.”

- Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings upgraded Peru's foreign debt to one level below investment grade. (click here for article)

- In May Peru entered talks with the Paris Club to re-nogciate its foreign debt and for the first time, Peru's international reserves are expected to exede foreign debt. (click here for article)

- Peru has achieved relative political and economically stability, successfully passing power from one democratically elected president (Toledo) to another (Garcia) and producing healthy economic growth the past few years.

- Generous macro-economic incentives have helped to attract FDI from abroad, particularly in Peru's mining and energy sectors.

- According to this article from MercoPress, which quotes the INEI: Peru's National Institute of Statistics (click here to visit) the Peruvian economy grew at a rate of 10.3% in the first half of 2008, making it the fastest growing economy in the region.

Lets think about this for a second...

Until the recent retreat/collapse/correction in commodity markets, for the majority of 2008, commodity prices have been sky-rocketing, setting records as arguably one of the strongest bull markets the commodity sector has ever experiences.

Peru, a major producer and exporter of copper, zinc, and other metals has naturally benefited a great deal from soaring commodity prices. However, now that commodity prices have come back down to reality it will become increasingly more difficult for Peru to produce such great numbers. The bright side is commodity prices may rise once again once global growth and confidence pick up, but with the recent developments in the US financial markets it is looking as if the global economy has a long way to go until recovering from the recent credit and banking crisis.

Investors should always research the bad and the good. Some factors which come to mind are as follows:

- The recent replacing of Finance Minister Luis Carranza with Luis Valdivierso, who aside from a more impressive resume having worked for the IMF... is really not much different that Mr. Carranza. It's a pity the main reason Carranza even stepped down was for “family reasons.” Stating, as the Minister of Finance he was over-worked, had little family time and could not adequately support his family.

- Protests and strikes from local communities and unions will remain a obstacle for many companies operating in the remote regions of Peru.

- The population and satisfaction of the Peruvian people with their current president Alan Garcia, and other Peruvian politicians whom are not of the radical left such former presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, have whitnessed their approval ratings shrink a great deal in the past 1-2 years... Meanwhile Humala has managed to remain in the spot light, maintain his friendship with Hugo Chavez and will probably will run for President once again in Peru's next election. Expect great changes if he wins.